From the Austrian perspective, it can be tempting to make predictions in regards to increases in prices due to the massive amount of credit expansion and inflation in the US. Furthermore, one might wonder how to answer critics of the Austrian theory of the business cycle, who point out inflation is not manifesting itself in aggregates like the CPI. However, Murray Rothbard makes an invaluable point in regards to our economic history looking at two of the greatest booms and busts in US history. Rothbard states the following:
“As “Austrian” business cycle theory points out, any bank credit inflation creates a boom-and-bust cycle; there is no need for prices actually to rise. Prices did not rise because an increased product of goods and services offset the monetary expansion. Similar conditions precipitated the great crash of 1929. Prices need not rise for an inflationary boom, followed by a bust, to be created. All that is needed is for prices to be kept up by the artificial boom, and be higher than they would have been without the monetary expansion. Without the credit expansion, prices would have fallen during the 1820s, as they would have a century later, thereby spreading the benefits of a great boom in investments and production to everyone in the country.” Murray Rothbard, The Mystery of Banking, p. 209
Could it be our economic history is repeating itself 200 years and 100 years after our prior inflationary booms and busts?